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David earman6/21/2023 If it landed to the right, for example, the first ball is more likely to be on the left side of the table (such an assumption leaves more space to the ball’s right for the second ball to land). Then, he says, have a colleague throw another ball onto the table and tell you whether it landed to the right or left of the first ball. You can make a guess as to where it landed, but there’s no way to know for certain how accurate you were, at least not without looking. He came up with a simple fictional scenario to start: Consider a ball thrown onto a flat table behind your back. Inspired to prove Hume wrong, Bayes tried to quantify the probability of an event. According to Hume, the probability of people inaccurately claiming that they’d seen Jesus’ resurrection far outweighed the probability that the event had occurred in the first place. It all began in 1748, when the philosopher David Hume published An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, calling into question, among other things, the existence of miracles. Today it has helped unlock the secrets of the brain. It would help Alan Turing decode the German Enigma cipher, the United States Navy locate Soviet subs, and statisticians determine the authorship of the Federalist Papers. … Yet an argument he wrote before his death in 1761 would shape the course of history. Born in England at the beginning of the 18th century, Bayes was a quiet and questioning man. ![]() Presbyterian reverend Thomas Bayes had no reason to suspect he’d make any lasting contribution to humankind. ![]() Jordana Cepelewicz, Nautilus, December 20, 2016, on the Christian roots of Bayesian statistics:
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